来源：中金策略

　　Abstract

　　摘要

　　我国大陆五一假期期间，全球主要股票市场普遍上涨，与中国相关资产表现尤其突出，恒生指数、恒生科技指数5月累计涨幅分别为8%、5%，美元指数、美债收益率均有下行。从海外主要事件来看，美国4月新增非农就业数据低于预期，FOMC会议维持美国基准利率不变，投资者对年内美联储降息的预期再度升温。国内方面，市场面临的宏观环境相对友好，4月PMI数据继续处于荣枯线以上，同时4月底中央政治局会议定调偏积极，中央政治局会议后北京、上海、南京等城市已经进一步优化调整住房政策。五一期间国内服务消费数据表现较好，消费及出行数据较强。

　　向前展望，考虑到目前 A 股整体估值不高，历史纵向及与全球主要市场的横向对比均具备较好投资吸引力，我们认为A 股修复行情仍有望延续，市场机会大于风险，结合五一期间国内外环境，我们认为A股有望在节后出现“开门红”。

　　配置方面，结合近期中央政治局会议对地产领域表述，相关板块后市仍有望有阶段性表现，需结合政策落实情况把握配置节奏cryptogamesonmobile；有科技进步预期驱动及新质生产力相关政策催化下的 TMT 领域中期仍有望有相对表现；外部因素及供给出清带来上游资源品行业机遇，继续关注黄金、石油石化、有色金属等资源板块；资本市场改革为金融板块带来新催化，投资者关注度阶段性抬升。

　　Text

　　正文

　　A股节后有望“开门红”

　　市场回顾

　　指数震荡上涨，成交上升。五一节前公布的制造业PMI数据略好于市场预期、中央政治局会议释放积极信号、部分城市放松地产政策，海外美联储实施降息预期升温，受内外部偏积极因素影响，节前两个交易日A股市场震荡上涨，上证指数收涨0.5%。投资者风险偏好继续回升，节前日均成交金额升至1.1万亿元左右；北向资金净流入23亿元左右。风格层面，偏大盘蓝筹的沪深300上涨0.6%，偏成长的创业板指、科创50分别上涨1.9%、2.0%，偏小盘的中证1000、中证2000分别上涨1.5%、2.1%，中证红利指数回调0.7%。行业层面，基本面及政策预期改善背景下房地产行业领涨，家电、基础化工也有不错的表现；前期涨幅较多的有色金属、建筑、石油石化等行业表现不佳。

　　市场展望

　　A股节后有望“开门红”，风险偏好继续修复。我国大陆五一假期期间，全球主要股票市场普遍上涨，与中国相关资产表现尤其突出，恒生指数、恒生科技指数5月累计涨幅分别为8%、5%，美元指数、美债收益率均有下行。

　　从海外主要事件来看，美国4月新增非农就业数据低于预期，FOMC会议维持美国基准利率不变，会议表述也释放出偏鸽派信号，投资者对年内美联储降息的预期再度升温，CME美联储观察隐含的年内降息次数为2次。

　　国内方面，市场面临的宏观环境相对友好，4月PMI数据继续处于荣枯线以上，经济处于企稳复苏阶段，同时4月底中央政治局会议定调偏积极，在肯定经济回升向好同时强调“坚持乘势而上”、“避免前紧后松”，地产方面指出“要结合房地产市场供求关系的新变化”，“统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施，抓紧构建房地产发展新模式”，中央政治局会议后北京、上海、南京等城市已经进一步优化调整住房政策，金融及资本市场方面提出“积极发展风险投资，壮大耐心资本”、“多措并举促进资本市场健康发展”。五一假期期间国内服务消费数据表现较好，消费及出行数据较强，公路、铁路和民航日均客运量均高于2019年同期水平，热门城市和地区游客和门票收入、全国电影票房也较2019年有所增长。

　　向前展望，考虑到目前 A 股整体估值不高，历史纵向及与全球主要市场的横向对比均具备较好投资吸引力，我们认为A 股修复行情仍有望延续，市场机会大于风险，结合五一期间国内外环境，我们认为A股有望在节后出现“开门红”。

　　配置方面，结合近期中央政治局会议对地产领域表述，相关板块后市仍有望有阶段性表现，需结合政策落实情况把握配置节奏；有科技进步预期驱动及新质生产力相关政策催化下的 TMT 领域中期仍有望有相对表现；外部因素及供给出清带来上游资源品行业机遇，继续关注黄金、石油石化、有色金属等资源板块；资本市场改革为金融板块带来新催化，投资者关注度阶段性抬升。

　　近期关注以下进展：

1) the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee sent a positive signal [1]. At the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30, the overall tone was relatively positive, affirming the recovery of the economy while emphasizing "avoiding tightening before loosening", "issuing and making good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, and speeding up the issuance and use of special bonds." maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure ", the monetary side" flexible use of interest rates and deposit reserve ratio and other policy tools. " In the aspect of real estate, it is required to "comprehensively study the policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing, and pay close attention to the construction of a new model of real estate development". In the field of capital market, it is proposed to "actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital". In addition, the meeting has targeted responses to key areas such as large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action plan, new urbanization and new quality productivity, which are highly concerned by the market. While studying the economic situation and work, the meeting decided to hold the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee in Beijing in July this year and set the main agenda, focusing on "studying the issue of further deepening reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization."

2) the manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4% in April, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Under the influence of seasonal factors, it fell moderately by 0.4%, which was still better than market expectations as a whole. At both ends of supply and demand, insufficient demand is still a major drag, while production picks up slightly.

3) A-share earnings decreased slightly in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024 compared with the same period last year. After the disclosure of the annual report and the quarterly report, the earnings of A shares in 2023 fell 1.4% from the same period last year, 3.3% in non-financial terms, the profit differentiation between upstream and downstream further narrowed, the downstream industries repaired faster, and the profit performance of upstream and some mid-stream manufacturing industries was weak. For the whole of 2023, the profit growth of upstream, middle and downstream industries was-15.2%, 0% and 2.7%, respectively. The profit growth rate of A shares fell by 4.3% in the first quarter of 2024, which may be the lowest annual growth rate, while the non-financial growth rate was 5.1%. At the structural level, the profit growth in the upper, middle and lower reaches was-11.5% and 9.2%, respectively. The upstream energy and raw materials industries are still the main sources of profits, and some mid-stream manufacturing sectors still need to absorb the problem of oversupply. For detailed analysis, please see our recently released "Annual report-Quarterly report Quarterly: profit growth is expected to gradually stabilize, downstream first improvement."

4) May Day travel and consumption data. In terms of travel, it is expected to send 140 million passengers from April 29 to 6, of which 20.69 million will be sent on May 1, a record high in a single day. The cross-regional personnel turnover of the whole society is expected to exceed 280 million on the first day of the holiday, an increase of 15.9% over the first day of the May Day holiday in 2019 [3]. In terms of consumption, major tourist attractions in China have ushered in a relatively high peak of passenger flow, and the growth of tourism orders in small and medium-sized cities has surpassed that of first-tier and popular cities; inbound and outbound tourism has also ushered in a substantial increase, where data show that the number of international air ticket bookings departing on the first day of the holiday has increased by 20% compared with the same period in 2019, and the number of air ticket bookings for nearly 100 outbound destinations has exceeded 2019 [4]. The box office of 51 films has exceeded 1.4 billion yuan.

5) overseas, the Fed's FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the subsequent non-farm payrolls data fell short of market expectations. Only 175000 new non-farm payrolls were added in April, the lowest in nearly half a year, the unemployment rate rose slightly, the growth rate of hourly wages slowed, and market interest rate cuts were expected to rise. Recently, the depreciation pressure of the Japanese yen has risen, and the market estimates that the Bank of Japan may launch a move on the foreign exchange market on May 2.CryptogamesonmobileThe official government did not comment on the intervention of 3 trillion yen [5].

[1] httpCryptogamesonmobile: / / politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0430/c1024-40227489.html

[2] https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202404/content_6948271.htm

[3] https://news.cctv.com/2024/05/05/ARTId3MeN6m2A2FYxrw5njKF240505.shtml

[4] https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1195240.html

[5] httpCryptogamesonmobile: / / intl.ce.cn/sjjj/qy/202405/03/t20240503_38991176.shtml

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