pragmaticbuffalomegaways| As soon as the weather changes in Russia, international wheat has increased again! But many people don't realize it, and another risk is coming soon

Date: 2个月前 (05-26)View: 23Comments: 0

Source: new agricultural concept

At a time when the domestic wheat market is weakPragmaticbuffalomegawaysHowever, international wheat is like beating.PragmaticbuffalomegawaysLike a stimulant, it soars again.

The reason is mainly due to the further deterioration of weather conditions in Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter.

At this point, everyone will understand, oh, this is another weather hype.

However, this can not be said to be speculation, because according to the weather forecast, freezing damage in parts of Russia has further escalated and continues to threaten the prospects of crops.

Among them, a number of institutions have lowered their forecasts for Russian wheat production in the new year again.

For example, in a report last week, the Agricultural Market Research Institute, a Russian agricultural consultancy, lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2023 Universe 24 to 86 million tons from 91 million tons at the beginning of May.

At the same time, the Russian wheat production forecast for 2024x25 was also reduced by 2.5 million tons, from 86 million tons to 83.5 million tons. At the same time, it also cut Russian wheat exports by 2 million tons, from 47 million tons to 45 million tons.

A research institute in the Black Sea also reduced the Russian wheat harvest in 2023 to 85.7 million tons from the previous 89.6 million tons because it believed that Russian wheat acreage and per unit yield had been damaged.

In fact, the local agricultural department is also assessing that the area involved in damaged replanting will be as high as 500000 hectares.

As a result, under these influences, not only Russian wheat prices have risen, but also Chicago wheat futures prices have soared again to their highest level since August last year.

The market gets nervous at once.

Because the threat caused by weather disturbance is still fermenting, especially Russia, as the world's largest wheat exporter, the fluctuation of its output and export volume has an important impact on the global wheat market.

Especially in the past two years, the proportion of wheat exports in the Black Sea region has gradually increased, so once there are fluctuations in Russian wheat, then the global wheat market will have to follow suit.

As a result, global markets are keeping a close eye on the weather changes in Russia and the latest wheat production.

Some institutions even believe that if Russian wheat production falls by 80 million tons in 2024, it is likely to trigger a new round of major fluctuations in the international wheat market.

But then again, it's no use looking at Russia, because globally, risk factors are increasing not only in Russia, but also in many major wheat-producing countries.

For example, France, Italy and Germany in Europe have just experienced heavy rainfall and storms, bringing risks to the planting and growth of many crops.

Ukraine is also about to usher in a drought, coupled with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is likely to affect wheat exports in the new year.

In addition to these, there is another country that has been neglected, and that is India.

Some people say that although India is also a major wheat producer, its wheat exports do not account for a high proportion of the global market, so the impact is limited.

But in the past two years, we will find that India's influence in many agricultural sectors is not low.

Take wheat, for example. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the panic in the wheat market soared, and India immediately shouted the slogan of increasing wheat exports, even "feeding the world." the global wheat market breathed a little.

But as a result, as we all know, instead of increasing wheat exports, India has been stopped, which has undoubtedly pushed the global wheat into the abyss again.

This time, India is in trouble again.

pragmaticbuffalomegaways| As soon as the weather changes in Russia, international wheat has increased again! But many people don't realize it, and another risk is coming soon

Just a few days ago, the temperature in India soared again.

How high has it reached?

The highest temperature of the Taj Mahal in Uttar Pradesh reached 46.Pragmaticbuffalomegaways.9 degrees Celsius

The highest temperature in the capital, New Delhi, soared to 46.Pragmaticbuffalomegaways.2 degrees Celsius

The highest temperature in Bamel, Rajasthan, reached 46.5 degrees Celsius.

In short, looking ahead, there are a lot of cities with more than 40 degrees Celsius.

India immediately issued a red alert for high temperatures, and this is just the beginning, as the Indian Meteorological Agency has warned that the weather will be hotter in the future.

If the extreme heat continues, it is likely to cause crops such as wheat and corn to wither.

As we all know, India issued a wheat export ban mainly to increase government reserves to supply domestic demand, but government acquisitions failed to meet targets in 2022 and 2023, while in the new year, the Indian government plans to buy about 33.5 million tons of wheat, about 28% higher than the previous year.

Therefore, time is tight and the task is heavy.

Some institutions have previously predicted that in the new year, India will not only be unable to resume wheat exports, but may even ease its domestic needs by importing wheat.

Although India does not account for a large proportion of wheat exports, such a populous country that has suddenly changed from a wheat exporter to a wheat importer will not be a squib in the global wheat market and is bound to become a thunder in the global wheat market.

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